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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|