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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister emerged as the sole European Union leader to support the Republican candidate. This backing was hardly surprising, in light of Mr Orbán's embrace of controversial ideas including the "great replacement" theory and the restrictions against journalistic liberties. Commentators point out that Hungary's premier more or less laid the groundwork for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance Before the Hungarian Vote

Recently, with pivotal polls in Hungary only six months away, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth straight win presiding over a nation he describes as an non-liberal system, his ruling party is behind in opinion polls. A visit to the US capital yielded beyond a few signed Maga baseball caps; it brought far more significant electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Financial Shields

Although previously admonishing EU countries on the necessity to stop all resource supplies from the Russian Federation, and warning of penalties against countries persisting to import Russian energy, Donald Trump consented to provide a unique waiver for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also agreed to provide a economic protection to Budapest if it runs into any later issues, especially as Brussels is still blocking large sums from the EU to the nation because of rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this agreement seem vague. However Donald Trump recently demonstrated his readiness to help out ideological allies after the US extended a a $20 billion loan to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. While the Hungarian PM did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Washington talks nevertheless turned out to be a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the international consequences of the forthcoming polls, before which the moderate contender, Magyar, holds a clear edge in the polls. EU chiefs are accustomed not to look for reliable policies from the US government, and accept the Trump's efforts to belittle the EU. However Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an deal to acquire American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts EU aspirations to end Russian fossil fuel imports by the year 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the two biggest EU importers of Russian crude, these two countries, have contributed well over £10bn to the Russian military campaign.
• At the same time, Hungary has often employed the threat of its veto to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for supporting Kyiv, and strengthening its hand in any later diplomatic discussions, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Opposition Stance

Péter Magyar has steered clear of pledging a significant change on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on home affairs, while stressing the importance for the country to start acting as a productive EU partner. Following so many years of trolling, Brussels can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to core EU ideals, such as the protection of minority groups and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a humiliating embarrassment for the European Union. His persistent opposition on Ukrainian matters risks undermining its future security.