Why Is The Current US Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat element of US politics – but this one feels particularly intractable due to shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity among both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave as both political parties can't agree on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp in this instance because both parties – as well as the nation's leader – perceive advantages in digging in.
Here are the four ways that make things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base has been demanding for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure in the spring. This time he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and other programmes.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The President and one of his key officials have openly indicated of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of reductions to the federal workforce implemented during the current presidential term so far.
The President himself said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, such as NYC and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, where the representative appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the shutdown.
That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say should the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.